Price band
$800K – $2M
- Active
- 3608
- Median PPSF
- $391
- Median DOM
- 48days
Weekly signal
Last 13 weeks
3608 active listings; median days on market 48 days. The bridge tier: luxury-adjacent entry, broadest active pool.
Yong's Weekly Read
September 28 to October 4
Phoenix metro · Supply pulse · Yong's read
At a glance
The week, in six numbers.
New listings
2,486
+4.1%WoW
4-week average
2393.3
Smoothed signal
52-week average
2245.1
Long-run baseline
Week-over-week
+4.1%
vs previous week
Year-over-year
n/a
Unavailable — comparable historical entry coverage is incomplete
Months of supply
4.6mo
Trailing 12 · balanced
The read
Week of September 28 – October 4, 2026, in Yong's words.
Phoenix metro recorded 2,486 new listings in the ISO week ending 2026-10-04, a count that rose +4.1% versus the prior week. Year-over-year comparison data is not yet available for this calendar week.
The week ran 3.9% above the trailing 4-week average of 2393.3 listings and 10.7% above the 52-week long-run baseline of 2245.1. Across the full 12-week window the supply pulse climbed 21.3%, a directional move the chart picks up below.
Recent absorption pace puts months-of-supply at 5.0 months on the trailing-3-month gauge, with the long-run trailing-12 gauge at 4.6. By that ratio the metro classifies as a balanced market, the gauge below telegraphs where the metro sits on the buyer-to-seller spectrum.
Inside the latest closed cohort, negotiation pressure tilted modestly toward buyers: 13.6% of closings printed above list, 59.5% below. Sellers showed real concession discipline; 52% of closed listings cut their list price before going pending.
Written by
Yong Choi
Global Real Estate Advisor
Luxury bands · price per sqft, days on market, closings
The price arc, band by band.
Active snapshot · 2026-10-06
Price band
$2M – $5M
- Active
- 1015
- Median PPSF
- $680
- Median DOM
- 60days
Weekly signal
Last 13 weeks
1015 active listings; median days on market 60 days. The most actively transacting luxury band.
Price band
$5M – $10M
- Active
- 247
- Median PPSF
- $1,038
- Median DOM
- 64days
Weekly signal
Last 13 weeks
247 active listings; median days on market 64 days. Selective inventory; representation-driven, longer time horizons.
Price band
$10M+
- Active
- 101
- Median PPSF
- $1,524
- Median DOM
- 59days
Weekly signal
Last 13 weeks
101 active listings; median days on market 59 days. Ultra-luxury; off-market share is meaningful, so the published count understates true activity.
Active ÷ trailing closings · Phoenix metro
Months of supply.
Balanced market
Phoenix metro · 3-month gaugeBuyer-leaningBalancedSeller-leaning
Strong buyers
Buyers
Balanced
Sellers
Strong sellers
↑ 5.01 mo
3-month gauge
5.01mo
Most current. Closings T3M
12-month gauge
4.59mo
Long-run. Closings T12M
Active inventory
23,826
IDX-displayable across the metro
Supply and absorption are matched. Neither side carries structural leverage; negotiation reduces to listing-specific dynamics.
From supply to the deal
What sellers gave.
What buyers paid.
Negotiation pulse
What the gap looked like.
Monthly snapshot · September 2026
Median gap to list
1.2% below
+0.2%+0.2pp YoY
Closed sale ÷ list
Closed over asking
13.6%
Share of closings
Closed below asking
59.5%
Share of closings
Buyers are negotiating a modest gap off list. Selective seller leverage holds.
Sellers blinking
Reductions inside the close pool.
Monthly snapshot · September 2026 · n = 6,170 closings
Closings with a reduction
51.6%
-2.3%-2.3pp YoY
At least one cut from list
Typical reduction depth
5.1%
Median net change from original list
Heavy capitulation. Nearly half of closings carried a recorded reduction; buyer-leaning negotiation climate.
How we read the market
Three inputs.
- 01
Recorded market transactions
ARMLS listing and sale records · refresh cadence varies by dataset
The full set of recorded listing-and-sale transactions across the Valley. Source-of-record for headline volume + closed-price stats.
- 02
Public deed filings
County recorder · weekly cross-reference
Captures recorded transactions that weren’t publicly listed, including off-market trades, intra-family transfers, and entity-to-entity sales.
- 03
Private RLSIR registry
Off-market trades facilitated by the network
Yong’s and the Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty network’s direct knowledge of pocket trades, club-membership-driven transfers, and pre-listing introductions.
Weekly cadence reports the supply pulse (new-listing cadence + rolling averages) at metro granularity. Monthly cadence reports the full stat suite: median price-per-sqft, median days-on-market, transaction volume, and inventory tier breakdown. Adjustments are noted inline where applicable.