Price band
$800K – $2M
- Active
- 3472
- Median PPSF
- $387
- Median DOM
- 46days
Weekly signal
Last 13 weeks
3472 active listings; median days on market 46 days. The bridge tier: luxury-adjacent entry, broadest active pool.
Yong's Weekly Read
November 17 to 23
Phoenix metro · Supply pulse · Yong's read
At a glance
The week, in six numbers.
New listings
1,662
-12.9%WoW-2.6%YoY
4-week average
1912.8
Smoothed signal
52-week average
2016.5
Long-run baseline
Week-over-week
-12.9%
vs prior ISO week
Year-over-year
-2.6%
vs same week last year
Months of supply
2.9mo
Trailing 12 · sellers
The read
Week of November 17-23, 2025, in Yong's words.
Phoenix metro recorded 1,662 new listings in the ISO week ending 2025-11-23, a count that fell sharply -12.9% versus the prior week. Compared to the same calendar week one year ago, the count printed 2.6% below that mark, a modest year-over-year drift.
The week ran 13.1% below the trailing 4-week average of 1912.8 listings and 17.6% below the 52-week long-run baseline of 2016.5. Across the full 12-week window the supply pulse eased 16.9%, a directional move the chart picks up below.
Recent absorption pace puts months-of-supply at 2.5 months on the trailing-3-month gauge, with the long-run trailing-12 gauge at 2.9. By that ratio the metro classifies as a seller’s market, the gauge below telegraphs where the metro sits on the buyer-to-seller spectrum.
Inside the latest closed cohort, negotiation pressure tilted modestly toward buyers: 13.4% of closings printed above list, 53.1% below. Sellers showed real concession discipline; 29% of closed listings cut their list price before going pending.
Written by
Yong Choi
Global Real Estate Advisor
Luxury bands · price per sqft, days on market, closings
The price arc, band by band.
Active snapshot · 2026-06-10
Price band
$2M – $5M
- Active
- 967
- Median PPSF
- $679
- Median DOM
- 61days
Weekly signal
Last 13 weeks
967 active listings; median days on market 61 days. The most actively transacting luxury band.
Price band
$5M – $10M
- Active
- 248
- Median PPSF
- $1,012
- Median DOM
- 74days
Weekly signal
Last 13 weeks
248 active listings; median days on market 74 days. Selective inventory; representation-driven, longer time horizons.
Price band
$10M+
- Active
- 79
- Median PPSF
- $1,522
- Median DOM
- 70days
Weekly signal
Last 13 weeks
79 active listings; median days on market 70 days. Ultra-luxury; off-market share is meaningful, so the published count understates true activity.
Active ÷ trailing closings · Phoenix metro
Months of supply.
Seller’s market
Phoenix metro · 3-month gaugeBuyer-leaningBalancedSeller-leaning
Strong buyers
Buyers
Balanced
Sellers
Strong sellers
↑ 2.55 mo
3-month gauge
2.55mo
Most current. Closings T3M
12-month gauge
2.94mo
Long-run. Closings T12M
Active inventory
25,797
IDX-displayable across the metro
Inventory clears faster than the year’s average pace. Sellers retain leverage on well-priced listings.
From supply to the deal
What sellers gave.
What buyers paid.
Negotiation pulse
What the gap looked like.
Monthly snapshot · May 2026
Median gap to list
0.7% below
-0.7%-0.7pp YoY
Closed sale ÷ list
Closed over asking
13.4%
Share of closings
Closed below asking
53.1%
Share of closings
Buyers are negotiating a modest gap off list. Selective seller leverage holds.
Sellers blinking
Reductions inside the close pool.
Monthly snapshot · May 2026 · n = 9,430 closings
Closings with a reduction
29.5%
At least one cut from list
Typical reduction depth
3.5%
Median net change from original list
Sellers are giving ground on a meaningful share of listings. Selective buyer leverage.
How we read the market
Three inputs.
- 01
ARMLS recorded transactions
1.84M Valley records · refreshed every 4 hours
The full set of MLS-listed transactions. Source-of-record for headline volume + closed-price stats.
- 02
Public deed filings
County recorder · weekly cross-reference
Captures recorded transactions that didn’t pass through the MLS, including off-market trades, intra-family transfers, and entity-to-entity sales.
- 03
Private RLSIR registry
Off-market trades facilitated by the network
Yong’s and the Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty network’s direct knowledge of pocket trades, club-membership-driven transfers, and pre-MLS introductions.
Weekly cadence reports the supply pulse (new-listing cadence + rolling averages) at metro granularity. Monthly cadence reports the full stat suite: median price-per-sqft, median days-on-market, transaction volume, and inventory tier breakdown. Adjustments are noted inline where applicable.